Live Commentary

Lower highs continue (so far)

Today is simply a repeat of the same pattern we’ve been seeing with this market and it’s getting old. It remains potentially bullish but looking weak. Watching our canary index, the RUT, I’m seeing more weakness than strength but it refuses to break down. Is that a sign of underlying bullishness […]

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Trendline resistance holding

With this morning’s small pop up at the open the indexes tagged overhead trend lines and then reversed back down. The techs have turned weaker than the blue chips and the RUT is dropping sharply. There is the possibility that a top was made this morning but as always we’ll need to […]

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August 25 Market Wrap — A 1-day rally makes a bullish week

Monday’s consolidation was followed by a strong rally on Tuesday which was then followed by three more days of choppy consolidation. Trading volume for the week was low, including Tuesday, and it seemed the market was waiting to get through the Jackson Hole meeting to see […]

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Impulsive rally (almost)

The sideways consolidation following this morning’s high is a bullish continuation pattern until proven otherwise. It fits as a 4th wave correction in the rally from last Thursday and should be followed by a 5th wave higher, which for SPX would equal […]

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An unsurprising quiet day

Not surprisingly for a summer Friday, it’s been a quiet day and that unfortunately means we’re still waiting for direction. Keeping with the SPX pattern, price remains locked inside its sideways triangle, the top and bottom of which are now near 2477.50 and 2472. I assume we’ll see […]

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Quiet morning

Waiting for the first hour to finish, to see if anything develops for either side, leaves me wondering which way the market will go today. It started down (except the techs) and dropped a little lower but there is still no evidence of an impulsive decline. That and the relative […]

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July 21 Market Wrap — Bulls get another bullish opex week

We have some mixed messages from the different indexes but that’s usually the case. If they all agreed and we had a slam-dunk setup for a trade you can usually be safe betting the other way. We also had opex influence, which is typically bullish, and that might have been […]

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July 5 Market Wrap — A split market and split opinions

In the past few weeks we’ve seen some strong splits between major indexes and it’s making it much more difficult to determine what the market is going to do next. The result has been a choppy market that’s either consolidating for another bullish run or is in a topping pattern. Today’s Market Stats The market […]

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3-wave pullback

With this afternoon’s sharp decline, following the FOMC announcement, we have a 3-wave pullback from this morning’s high. The Dow made a minor new high this afternoon before spiking back down but it still fits as an a-b-c pullback (expanded […]

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SPX trendline support

Yesterday SPX gapped up over resistance at its downtrend line from March 15th. With yesterday’s midday pullback and again this morning SPX found support at the broken downtrend line leaving a successful back-test so far (even if not much […]

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